Determination of Risk Factors Caused by Ships in Port Planning

Abstract

World Economy has been globalizing faster than ever as a result of the technological evolution. Increase of global trade brings the need of higher transportation capacity as bigger ships and port facilities. Port construction and expansion investments can be said to be supply to meet demand. Maritime safety is one of the factors affecting the zoning plan approval process in the port construction and extension investments. These factors mostly caused by the ship maneuver. One of the most widely used models is the Environmental Stress (ES) Model in risk assessment of navigation and ship manoeuvre. ES Model measures the risk occurring around the ship during the berthing / unberthing manoeuvres performed in the simulation environment with the ports and ships that are modeled similar to the port project. But, it is not certain which parameter of the port project will be revised such as ship tonnage and length of the ship, port form and size etc. The main benefit of this study is taking precaution with measuring risk by specifying the risk factors and their weights using both ES Model and fuzzy logic method. Thus, the development plan and project evaluation process, which is under the duty and responsibility of the Turkish Ministry of Transport, will be carried out in terms of safety with the method proposed in this study. Another important contribution of this study is its originality in terms of clarification of raw outputs of ES model reports by using fuzzy logic method in scientific literature. So, the revised port project will be realized by providing maritime safety. While port projects are approved by the Ministry of Transport within the scope of the legislation that determines the port planning process in question, the evaluation of Modeling Reports with fuzzy logic method will contribute to both fast and safe project design process.