Assessment of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: Crisis Management via Maritime Transportation

Abstract

After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, an agreement regarding the export of grains produced in these countries has been signed. Consequently, the export of grains from Black Sea ports has commenced. The primary objective of this agreement was to prevent a food crisis by avoiding further deterioration of the current situation. However, Russia rejected the extension of the agreement in July 2023, citing a lack of compromise with Western countries. In this regard, this study aims to investigate the extent to which this agreement has benefited low - income countries and what the future implications would be if the agreement were not expired. To be able to make an assessment, data related to export has been retrieved from Black Sea Grain Initiative database. Using MS Excel, the rate of export to these countries has been calculated, and a forecast has been made using trend analysis and single exponential smoothing, which has been illustrated with charts. Our calculations reveal that the level of grain export to low income countries is not at a desirable level and is unlikely to reach a desirable level in the short term. According to the analysis conducted, while the trend of export to both low and high income countries has slightly declined or remained stable, the rate of export to upper middle income countries such as China, Türkiye and Bulgaria appears to be increasing. In conclusion, if the rate of export does not change in favor of low income countries, this situation may potentially trigger a food crisis.